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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 13-G.Davis (20-E.Apple) [94-S.Hubbard].

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.21 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model