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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 23
Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14
What Actually Happened
(11:12) 17-J.Allen left guard to CIN 21 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader; 55-L.Wilson).
The Three Options
GO
+2.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.56 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP
KICK
+1.56 EP
- 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
