4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. Penalty on BUF-4-J.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.95 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP