4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:47) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model