Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(10:12) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CIN 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 28 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.97 EP
49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model