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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Saturday 2023-01-07 · 20:15 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

TEN
25.7%
JAX
74.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.129 vs Joshua Dobbs (TEN) -0.205 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

TEN

Davontae Harris CB Out Hamstring
Treylon Burks WR Questionable Groin
Amani Hooker S Questionable Knee
Dylan Cole LB Questionable Ankle
Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Groin
Nicholas Petit-Frere T Questionable Ankle

JAX

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Ankle
Rayshawn Jenkins S Questionable Shoulder
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe
Ross Matiscik LS Questionable Back
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Abdomen
Travon Walker LB Questionable Ankle
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 16
–
JAX 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:26 FG TEN (1:26) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 05:39 TD TEN (5:39) 11-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-T.Walker]. TEN 9 – JAX 0
  • Q2 02:43 TD JAX (2:43) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 14-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 13 – JAX 7
  • Q3 10:14 FG JAX (10:14) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 13 – JAX 10
  • Q3 06:07 FG TEN (6:07) 14-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 16 – JAX 10
  • Q4 14:54 FG JAX (14:54) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 16 – JAX 13
  • Q4 03:01 TD JAX (3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – JAX 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:41) 53-D.Cole reported in as eligible. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 11 yards (42-J.Jones; 53-D.Cole).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to TEN 16 for 2 yards (6-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 36%

    (6:34) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 81-A.Hooper pushed ob at JAX 41 for 7 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-R.Woods pushed ob at JAX 25 for 9 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 73%

    (1:26) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (:03) 14-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (10:14) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (6:07) 14-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%

    (4:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 93%

    (14:54) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 43 for 22 yards (31-K.Byard; 42-J.Jones).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:58) 53-D.Cole reported in as eligible. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-29-J.Thompson.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 25%

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 25-H.Haskins to JAX 44 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun).