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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP