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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model