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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 53-D.Cole reported in as eligible. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-29-J.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP