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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 81-A.Hooper pushed ob at JAX 41 for 7 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model