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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 43 for 22 yards (31-K.Byard; 42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model