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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 18

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP