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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-R.Woods pushed ob at JAX 25 for 9 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model