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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN
43.9%
GB
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIN

Garrett Bradbury C Out Back
James Lynch DT Out Shoulder

GB

Keisean Nixon CB Questionable Groin
Christian Watson WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 17
–
GB 41

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:41 FG MIN (10:41) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 3 – GB 0
  • Q1 10:38 TD GB 1-G.Joseph kicks 70 yards from MIN 35 to GB -5. 25-K.Nixon for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 6
  • Q1 05:33 TD GB (5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 13
  • Q2 09:52 FG GB (9:52) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 3 – GB 17
  • Q2 02:48 TD GB (2:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 23
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 3 – GB 27
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 28-A.Dillon left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 33
  • Q4 09:31 TD GB (9:31) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 40
  • Q4 07:44 TD MIN (7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-47-J.Hollins, Defensive Offside, declined. MIN 9 – GB 41
  • Q4 00:25 TD MIN (:25) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – GB 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:38) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-R.Cobb to GB 21 for 15 yards (33-B.Asamoah).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (10:41) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:35) 14-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 38 for 10 yards (25-T.Jackson).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%

    (6:37) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -16 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 62%

    (5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 81%

    (1:41) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:52) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (:41) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 16, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor. MIN-25-T.Jackson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to MIN 21, Center-56-J.Coco. 5-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 21. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 21 for no gain (24-T.Carpenter).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 35 for 37 yards (20-R.Ford; 45-E.Wilson).