4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.90 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model