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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 41

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 35 for 37 yards (20-R.Ford; 45-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.03 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model