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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP