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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 16, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor. MIN-25-T.Jackson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model