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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model