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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(:41) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model