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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 14-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 38 for 10 yards (25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model