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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

CHI
29.9%
DET
70.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.191 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.103 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: +0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
DET 28
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CHI

No players on the report.

DET

Kayode Awosika G Out Ankle
DeShon Elliott S Out Shoulder
Justin Jackson RB Questionable Hip
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Foot
Josh Woods LB Questionable Biceps

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10
–
DET 41

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:00 TD CHI (11:00) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 06:48 TD DET (6:48) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Watts]. CHI 7 – DET 6
  • Q1 02:28 FG CHI (2:28) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 10 – DET 7
  • Q2 14:32 TD DET (14:32) 32-D.Swift left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – DET 13
  • Q2 04:23 TD DET (4:23) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – DET 20
  • Q2 00:20 FG DET (:20) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. CHI 10 – DET 24
  • Q3 11:42 TD DET (11:42) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – DET 30
  • Q3 06:44 TD DET (6:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 32-D.Swift for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – DET 37
  • Q4 02:45 FG DET (2:45) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. CHI 10 – DET 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (2:28) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:25) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to DET 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:25) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to CHI 20, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 30 for 10 yards (51-J.Woods).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:29) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to DET 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 6 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (:20) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:44) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to DET 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 15 yards (45-J.Thomas, 48-P.Scales). PENALTY on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DET 15.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:09) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (3:38) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to CHI 27, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-35-B.Breeze.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:35) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to DET 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (11:54) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CHI 5, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 25-T.Ebner.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:21) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to CHI 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 62%

    (8:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Wright.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 82%

    (5:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 84-R.Griffin (26-I.Melifonwu).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:49) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to DET 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 39 for 10 yards (88-T.Wesco).