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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 71

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to DET 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 15 yards (45-J.Thomas, 48-P.Scales). PENALTY on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DET 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model