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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 49

Detroit Lions 38 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CHI 5, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 25-T.Ebner.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model