Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 68

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 38

(1:35) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to DET 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.86 EP
53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model