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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 5

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP