Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 54

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 14

(12:25) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to DET 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.83 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model