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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 80

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to CHI 20, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 30 for 10 yards (51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP