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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 4

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:20) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +3.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.75 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 4, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP