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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 20:15 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌨 Snow Spread 2.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

LV
43.1%
PIT
56.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Kenny Pickett (PIT): -0.065 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Wind 21 mph
  • LV defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LV

Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Knee
Alex Bars G Questionable Knee
Jackson Barton T Questionable Back
Andrew Billings DT Questionable Fibula
Darien Butler LB Questionable Quadricep
Dylan Parham G Questionable Knee
Zamir White RB Questionable Ankle

PIT

Terrell Edmunds S Questionable Hamstring
Diontae Johnson WR Questionable Toe
Myles Jack LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 10
–
PIT 13

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:46 TD LV (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 01:53 FG PIT (1:53) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. LV 7 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:09 FG LV (:09) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – PIT 3
  • Q4 09:52 FG PIT (9:52) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. LV 10 – PIT 6
  • Q4 00:50 TD PIT (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – PIT 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:48) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to LV 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:30) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 82%

    (11:52) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:46) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%

    (3:00) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to LV 28 for 2 yards (91-B.Nichols, 92-N.Farrell).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (1:53) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (:09) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 61%

    (7:22) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to LV 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 29 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%

    (9:52) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:06) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 82-S.Sims to PIT 21 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (4:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:02) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (:55) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to LV 14 for 1 yard (91-B.Nichols; 37-T.Hall).