4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:55) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to LV 14 for 1 yard (91-B.Nichols; 37-T.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.14 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model