Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(9:46) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.70 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model