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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model