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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:09) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model