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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model