Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

(6:06) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 82-S.Sims to PIT 21 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.36 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model