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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to LV 28 for 2 yards (91-B.Nichols, 92-N.Farrell).

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.11 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model