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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Jeff Saturday
Monday 2022-12-26 · 20:15 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LAC
45.5%
IND
54.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Nick Foles (IND) +0.138 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.022 EPA/dropback (IND starting Nick Foles in place of Matt Ryan)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Nick Foles (IND) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LAC

Kemon Hall CB Out Hamstring

IND

Kylen Granson TE Out Ankle
Kenny Moore CB Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
IND 3

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:44 TD LAC (8:44) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 04:26 FG IND (4:26) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. LAC 7 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 15-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – IND 3
  • Q3 06:05 FG LAC (6:05) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 13 – IND 3
  • Q4 08:23 TD LAC (8:23) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – IND 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:31) 6-M.Haack punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-D.Carter to LAC 34 for 16 yards (16-A.Dulin, 57-J.Domann).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:47) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to IND 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 39 for 3 yards (26-A.Samuel). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 38 for 4 yards (26-A.Samuel).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:33) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to IND 30, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:16) 6-M.Haack punts 43 yards to LAC 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 46 for 15 yards (41-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 40.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%

    (4:26) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 15-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:45) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to IND 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (8:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to IND 10 for 7 yards (31-B.Facyson).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (6:05) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:00) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-D.Carter MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 17, ball out of bounds at LAC 18.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 9-N.Foles up the middle to LAC 12 for no gain (49-D.Tranquill; 32-A.Gilman).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%

    (6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman (43-M.Davis).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 55%

    (5:07) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to LAC 48 for 6 yards (23-B.Callahan; 49-D.Tranquill).