4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model