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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model