4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to IND 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP