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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 12

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-N.Foles up the middle to LAC 12 for no gain (49-D.Tranquill; 32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.11 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model