Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(13:31) 6-M.Haack punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-D.Carter to LAC 34 for 16 yards (16-A.Dulin, 57-J.Domann).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.67 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model