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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to IND 10 for 7 yards (31-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.83 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model