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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 39 for 3 yards (26-A.Samuel). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 38 for 4 yards (26-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model