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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Thursday 2022-12-22 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

JAX
53.7%
NYJ
46.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.137 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.130 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Ankle
Cam Robinson T Out Knee
Travon Walker LB Out Ankle
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe
Chad Muma LB Questionable Ankle
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Abdomen
Jawaan Taylor T Questionable Hamstring
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Brandin Echols CB Out Quadricep
Denzel Mims WR Out Concussion
Jeff Smith WR Out Knee
Mike White QB Out Rib
Zonovan Knight RB Questionable Ankle
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Calf
Lamarcus Joyner S Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 19
–
NYJ 3

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:41 FG NYJ (11:41) 6-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. JAX 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 07:18 FG JAX (7:18) 10-R.Patterson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 11:27 TD JAX (11:27) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 02:58 FG JAX (2:58) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 07:09 FG JAX (7:09) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 16 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 03:49 FG JAX (3:49) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 19 – NYJ 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (11:41) 6-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (7:18) 10-R.Patterson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (4:49) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to JAX 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. Penalty on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (7:46) 7-B.Mann punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%

    (2:58) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:00) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at JAX 33 for 4 yards (88-K.Yeboah).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 79%

    (:29) 10-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd at JAX 25. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 44 for 19 yards. Lateral to 5-A.Cisco to JAX 48 for 4 yards (17-G.Wilson).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:37) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (7:09) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:09) 7-B.Mann punts 27 yards to JAX 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 46%

    (3:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 83%

    (12:54) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to JAX 21 for 4 yards (32-T.Campbell).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%

    (10:27) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Wilson [49-A.Key].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (5:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to NYJ 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:20) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 37 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun). FUMBLES (23-F.Oluokun), RECOVERED by JAX-37-T.Herndon at NYJ 38. 37-T.Herndon pushed ob at NYJ 24 for 14 yards (71-D.Brown).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (3:49) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 63%

    (1:40) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass incomplete deep left to 17-G.Wilson (32-T.Campbell).