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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at JAX 33 for 4 yards (88-K.Yeboah).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model