4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 47

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to JAX 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. Penalty on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model