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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model