4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 37 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun). FUMBLES (23-F.Oluokun), RECOVERED by JAX-37-T.Herndon at NYJ 38. 37-T.Herndon pushed ob at NYJ 24 for 14 yards (71-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model